CLIMATE CHANGE
For too long we have poured greenhouse pollution into the earth's atmosphere, and we continue to do so at an alarming rate. Science tells us that this pollution is causing climate change.
We are already starting to feel the effects of this phenomenon. And projections show that if we don't act, it will only get worse. With changing temperatures and rainfall patterns, more droughts, floods, water shortages, rising sea levels, and extreme weather.
Australia – already the driest inhabited continent on Earth – is particularly vulnerable to climate change. And the longer we delay action, the more it will cost, and the worse its effects will be.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COSTS
NATURAL DISASTERS
Climate change is projected to increase the severity and frequency of many natural disasters, such as bushfires, cyclones, hailstorms and floods. Insured losses from these events are expected to total billions of dollars – 19 of the 20 largest property insurance losses since 1967 have been weather related.
- Between 1967 and 1999, bushfires cost the Australian economy around $2.5 billion. From 1960 to 2001, there were 224 fire-related deaths and 4505 injuries.
- The 1999 Sydney hailstorm resulted in $1.7 billion in insured losses, 1 death and 500 injuries. 500 people were made homeless, and 24,000 homes and 70,000 motor vehicles were damaged.
More intense extreme weather events are also likely to increase insurance premiums for natural disasters, compounding the problem of under-insurance.
- Around 23 per cent of Australian households (1.8 million) are currently without building or contents insurance. As insurance premiums rise, more households may opt out of insuring, putting an added burden on governments and communities when disasters occur.
DROUGHT
An increase in the frequency and severity of drought conditions resulting from climate change will reduce the availability of water.
The frequency of drought may increase by up to 20 cent over most of Australia by 2030. And up to 40 per cent in south-eastern Australia and 80 per cent in south-western Australia by 2070.
- Restrictions on water use in Australian cities resulting from the current drought have cost around $900 million a year and affected over 80 per cent of Australia's households.
- The current drought has contributed to a fall in sheep numbers to their lowest levels since 1924. It also caused in 2006-2007 a reduction in wheat and barley production by over 50 per cent,and a fall in rice production by over 80 per cent on 2005-2006 levels.
- The 2006-07 drought is estimated to have reduced the rate of economic growth in Australia by around 0.75 percentage points [from what would have otherwise been achieved].
WATER RESOURCES
Water flows into the Murray-Darling Basin, already stressed, are likely to decline by 15 per cent if the temperature warms by 1°C. Reductions in flows of around 50% are possible by the end of the century. Many other regions are also likely to experience severe reductions in water flows.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
The changing climate will threaten agricultural production.
- Irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin could decline by up to 92 per cent.
- If the temperature rises by 2°C our national livestock carrying capacity is projected to decrease by 40 per cent.
Climate change is expected to cause more heat-related deaths, and a higher incidence of disease from food and water-borne contaminants.
Temperature rises, combined with population growth, are projected to see 3000 to 5000 more people die each year from heat-related illnesses by 2050, with those living in temperate cities at greater risk.
- By 2050, the number of heat-related deaths in our capital cities (Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth) is expected to more than triple to between 4,300-6,300 a year.
There are also expected to be around 79,000 additional cases of food poisoning a year by 2050.
The threat from vector borne disease will increase. For example, the transmission zone for Dengue fever may spread south to Brisbane by 2100.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Climate change is also expected to affect our infrastructure. For example, when combined with expected population growth and internal migration, changes in temperatures and rainfall are expected to increase road maintenance costs by up to 31 per cent by 2100.
Drought – likely to become more frequent as a result of climate change – has the potential to disrupt electricity generation capacity and affect the reliability of electricity supplies. Drought can also lead to increased incidence of footing failure and consequential cracking in buildings.
COASTAL ZONES
As an island continent, Australia is highly vulnerable to sea-level rises resulting from climate change, with significant coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure anticipated.
- 711,000 addresses and many billions of dollars worth of assets are at risk from rising sea levels and changes in storm surge.
- By 2100 sandy beaches could have receded by up to 88 metres.
FLORA AND FAUNA
As well as its effects on people, Australia's native plants and animals are also likely to suffer as a result of climate change with a drastic reduction of the extent and quality of their habitats.
A temperature rise of 2.1°C to 2.9°C could see the geographical ranges of 83 per cent of species reduced by at least 50 per cent.
A 5°C increase could result in a loss of 90 to 100 per cent of the core habitat for most native vertebrates.
Our ecologically rich sites, such as the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics, Kakadu Wetlands, Australian Alpine areas, south-western Australia, and sub- Antarctic islands are all at risk, with significant loss of biodiversity projected to occur by 2020.
Very conservatively, 90 Australian animal species have so far been identified as at risk from climate change; including mammals, insects, birds, reptiles, fish and amphibians from all parts of the country.
- This includes around 1/3 of those on the national 'endangered' list, and 1/6 of those listed as 'vulnerable'.
For further information on climate change visit http://www.climatechange.gov.au/index.html